Is there really a Most Valuable Player this year?
The National Football League is entering its final few weeks, yet the MVP debate is just as unclear now as it was at the beginning of the season. No one has really separated themselves from the crowd, and with only a handful of games left, the award is up for grabs.
Usually around Week 10, the top five candidates are established, with a clear but uncertain number one, a potential number two, and a dark horse number three.
The 2020 MVP race was a perfect example; Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a strong hold on the top spot, but Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen had a breakout year that positioned him right behind Rodgers. Quarterback and former MVP Patrick Mahomes secured the third-place vote as he and the Chiefs cruised to a conference championship.
This year, however, is an aberration. Instead of three realistic candidates out of five potential options, there are now seven possibilities, each with a potential path to the trophy.
The current MVP race leader is none other than Buccaneers’ quarterback, Tom Brady. The ageless enigma is almost as good at 44 years old as he was 10 or 20 years ago. He is second in the league in passing yards, is currently on pace to throw for over 5,000 passing yards and over 46 touchdowns and is leading the Bucs to an 8-3 record, from Pro-Football-Reference.com.
For reference, Aaron Rodgers won the MVP last year with 4,299 passing yards and 48 touchdowns.
However, despite the impressive statistics, Brady has not been playing as well as he was to start the season. In his last four games, he has maintained a 1.5:1 touchdown-to-turnover ratio, meaning for nearly every touchdown he throws, he also throws an interception. In those four games, the Bucs have lost to the New Orleans Saints, who lost their starting quarterback earlier this year, and the New York Giants, one of the worst teams in the league.
Behind Brady gets a little bit tricky, as different websites and sportsbooks have separate opinions; while CBS Sports ranks Aaron Rodgers second, FOX Bet has Josh Allen in that spot. Seeing Josh Allen at this spot is surprising, considering he has not had the magical season analysts expected him to have.
Currently sixth in the American Football Conference, Allen is on pace to throw for 4,746 yards and 38 touchdowns according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, but, like Brady, he has not looked great in his past four games. He’s thrown eight touchdowns and seven interceptions, with two embarrassing losses.
He put up a measly six points in a loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a legitimate contender for the number one pick in the draft. Two weeks later, the Indianapolis Colts completely shut him down in a horrible 41-15 loss at home. Even coming off their most recent win against the Saints, Allen still threw another two interceptions.
The most impressive potential candidate, ranked second by CBS Sports and third by FOX Bet, is Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Though his stats don’t match up to Brady and Allen, Rodgers has led his team to second place in the National Football Conference and has been the most consistent quarterback this year.
The biggest aid and detriment to Rodgers’ case is neither his play nor the team’s record, but his decision to lie about being vaccinated. He was placed into COVID-19 protocols in Week 9 against the Kansas City Chiefs, meaning his back-up Jordan Love was the starter.
Without Rodgers, Green Bay put up a humiliating seven points against one of the most porous defenses in the league in Kansas City. The offense looked completely inept on all but one drive, which resulted in their only score. When looking at the term “Most Valuable,” that game showed that Rodgers is clearly the most valuable player to his team, because without him, the Packers are nothing.
However, Rodgers’ refusal and subsequent lie about receiving the vaccine may keep him from winning the award. The NFL and its voters may look to penalize him by awarding the MVP to a different player if someone else steps up dramatically.
The last non-quarterback to win the MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012. In one of the greatest seasons in NFL history, Peterson ran for 2,097 yards (second all-time) and scored 12 touchdowns, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
For running backs to win the MVP award, historically they’ve either had to rush for 2,000 yards or score close to 20 touchdowns. Titans’ running back Derrick Henry did both last year, notching 2,027 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, yet he didn’t even finish in the top three in MVP votes, which shows how quarterback-biased the award is.
Henry was on pace to break the all-time rushing this season before he injured his foot. In his place, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has exploded as the next potential non-QB candidate.
The league leader in rushing yards, Taylor has already racked up 14 touchdowns and has rushed for over 100 yards six times this season. His most impressive performance came against the Bills, where he decimated Buffalo’s run defense with 185 yards and four touchdowns. In their next game against the Bucs, once the Colts started losing, they finally gave the ball to Taylor, who led them straight down the field for a game-tying score
Those four candidates completely control their own destiny; if they continue to perform at the highest level, then they’ll stay in the conversation. The next three, however, need a little help to increase their chances. Should one of the previous four fall off, then one of the next three will likely take their place.
Ranked third in CBS Sport’s MVP poll is the Arizona Cardinals’ quarterback, Kyler Murray. Murray had a fantastic start to the season, leading the Cardinals to an impressive 8-0 record before being sidelined by an ankle injury. Completely missing the month of November, Murray’s MVP hopes can only be revived if he comes back playing as great as he did to start the season.
Heading into the bye with a four-game winning streak, the Chiefs are starting to round back into form behind the leadership of Patrick Mahomes. Currently fifth in total passing yards, Mahomes’ scrambling and deep ball accuracy make him a threat to win MVP, even if he doesn’t have all the stats. If the Chiefs can finish 12-5 or even 13-4, and Mahomes picks up his play, then his name will appear in the conversation.
Last in the MVP discussion is the Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback, Lamar Jackson. Jackson had an excellent and underrated start to the season, putting up numbers better than those of his 2019 MVP season. Despite injuries ravaging the team, Jackson has kept the Ravens afloat as they now sit at the top of the AFC.
He has shown great improvement as a quarterback, specifically in his pocket-passing and his ability to bring his team back into the game. The last two games, however, have not gone nearly as well, with Jackson tossing four interceptions to Cleveland to just one touchdown. The former MVP will be fine; as long as Jackson returns to his former self, and the Ravens finish as the number one seed, then voters will have to recognize his MVP candidacy.
With the extra week added to the season, all seven candidates have another game to help solidify their cases. While most sites place Tom Brady as the favorite, the race is more wide-open than it’s been in years. All that’s left is for someone to rise up to the occasion.